On the curve, week ending 2026-05-11
This week’s signals cluster on the bounded-resources side of the ledger. Copper and rare earths are tightening at the input stage, right-to-repair legislation is shifting the calculus between ownership and subscription, Starlink’s third-generation network is expanding the reach of communications sovereignty, and record renewable additions are accelerating the case for individual energy independence. The thread running through all five items is the widening gap between what intelligence and labour can produce at falling cost, and what finite physical inputs will command at rising cost.
- China’s sulphuric acid export ban from 1 May 2026 is immediately constraining global copper refining capacity, with up to 200,000 tonnes of Chilean production at risk.
Sulphuric acid is essential to copper extraction and refining. China’s restriction, combined with potential curbs in the Democratic Republic of Congo (125,000 tonnes), leaves the refining supply chain with minimal buffer. Demand is accelerating simultaneously: AI data centres and EV batteries are driving forecast copper consumption toward 42 million tonnes by 2040, a 50% increase from current levels. Goldman Sachs forecasts material disruption to global availability if supply-chain delays extend through June 2026.
Why it matters: Copper’s supply constraint is structural, not cyclical, and the durational scarcity that follows will price into physical holdings of the metal as grid modernisation costs rise.
Source: Goldman Sachs
- Heavy rare earths face supply constraints expected to persist through the end of the decade, despite USD 10 billion committed to alternative production in 2026 alone.
Dysprosium and terbium are irreplaceable in EV motors, wind turbine generators, and advanced defence systems. China controls processing and export and has maintained dual-use restrictions that have dried up available supply. Government investment will not close the supply-demand gap before 2030. Semiconductor suppliers are already quoting lead times beyond 40 weeks for components dependent on these materials.
Why it matters: Unlike copper, rare earth shortages have no near-term substitute materials, and geopolitical control of the refining supply chain means EV and renewable infrastructure costs will rise regardless of energy policy.
Source: S&P Global
- The federal REPAIR Act (H.R. 1566) continues to advance in Congress, with over 40 bills in at least 20 states targeting manufacturer repair restrictions across electronics, agriculture, and automotive.
The REPAIR Act would prohibit manufacturers from using software to lock out independent repairs or deny access to parts and diagnostics. The 2026 state-level template closes manufacturer loopholes on parts pairing and software locks. Massachusetts, New York, and multiple other states have proposed or passed parallel legislation. Repair as a consumer right is consolidating from activist position to regulatory baseline.
Why it matters: A device you can repair indefinitely is an asset; one locked to manufacturer service is a consumable, and legislation that privileges ownership over subscription draws a durable economic line between the two.
Source: Congress.gov
- SpaceX is preparing to launch third-generation Starlink satellites in the first half of 2026, each capable of over one terabit per second downlink capacity.
The existing constellation comprises over 10,374 satellites in orbit, with 8,722 operational as of May 2026. Third-generation units deliver communications bandwidth comparable to terrestrial fibre from orbit, decoupling communications from geography and removing dependence on fixed ground infrastructure. The 1,000th Starlink satellite launch of 2026 occurred in April alone.
Why it matters: Satellite communications backed by non-correlated infrastructure is a hedge against regional outages and centralised control, and the rapidly improving cost curve makes this form of infrastructure ownership accessible rather than specialist.
Source: Data Centre Dynamics
- The US is on track to add 86 GW of new electricity capacity in 2026, with solar, wind, and battery storage comprising 99% of planned additions.
Solar capacity will expand by 43.4 GW (a 60% increase over 2025), while wind is forecast to more than double at 11.8 GW, including major offshore projects. Battery storage adds 353.4 GWh. Texas accounts for 40% of new utility-scale solar projects. The dominance of renewables signals that new clean capacity is now cheaper to build than maintaining existing thermal plants.
Why it matters: As the capital cost of generation falls, individual energy sovereignty becomes increasingly attainable, and each year of accelerating deployment improves the financial case for storage and microgrid design.
Source: EIA
For deeper context on copper and rare earth supply constraints, see The case for portable battery storage and the Starlink connectivity buying guide. The right-to-repair momentum builds on the ownership argument in The subscription trap.