Five items this week. Central bank gold buying continues to extend a 15-year trend with no sign of reversal. The Presidential copper tariff determination adds a domestic content requirement that the Commerce recommendation did not include. The EU Right to Repair Directive enters force in 18 days and the compliance picture across manufacturers is uneven. China’s rare earth licensing mechanics matter as much as the headline controls. And NREL’s residential battery cost data shows a different picture from the grid-scale figures in last week’s digest.
- Central banks have been net buyers of gold for 15 consecutive years – a structural shift in how sovereign institutions hold reserves.
The World Gold Council’s annual demand data confirms that central banks collectively have been net purchasers of gold every year since 2010, purchasing approximately 1,000 tonnes annually in the most recent years of the series. Named buyers include Poland (220 tonnes in 2023, the largest single central bank purchase in the year), the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the Reserve Bank of India, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore. The pace has not slowed in 2025 or into 2026. Central banks now hold around 36,000 tonnes of gold as a reserve asset globally.
Why it matters: Governments are choosing to hold gold over the currencies of other governments. The 15-year run of net buying is not speculative positioning; it is the reserve management decision of institutions with multi-decade time horizons. The real assets thesis from Alden, Doomberg, and Gromen covers the macro framework that underpins why this matters for individual buyers thinking about the same trade in smaller form.
Source: World Gold Council: Central Bank Gold Reserves
- President confirms phased copper tariff: 15 per cent from January 2027, 30 per cent from January 2028 – plus a 25 per cent domestic sales requirement and export controls on high-quality copper scrap.
Following the Commerce Department’s 30 June market assessment covered in the July 6 digest, the Presidential determination adds two provisions not in the original recommendation. First, a 25% domestic sales requirement for copper input materials takes effect in 2027, meaning producers selling into the US market must route a quarter of volume through domestic channels. Second, export controls on high-quality copper scrap restrict the outflow of refined copper material that would otherwise reach processors in Asia. The stated policy aim is rebuilding US copper refining capacity, which has fallen to approximately 20% of its 1990 level.
Why it matters: The scrap export controls and domestic content requirement are more consequential than the tariff headline for global copper availability. They constrain the secondary copper market – the fast-adjustment mechanism that can partially offset primary supply shortfalls in the short run. The copper supply chain argument covers why the structural deficit widens regardless of tariff regime, but these measures accelerate the timeline.
Source: White House: Adjusting Imports of Copper into the United States
- EU Right to Repair compliance deadline: 31 July is 18 days away – manufacturers must have parts listed, priced, and available before enforcement begins.
The EU Right to Repair Directive (Directive 2024/1799) enters force on 31 July 2026. The compliance requirement is not abstract. By that date, manufacturers of covered products must have published parts catalogues with prices, made technical documentation accessible to independent repairers, and removed software-based parts-pairing restrictions without valid technical justification. The one-year guarantee extension for repaired goods also becomes operative. Two products already meet all four requirements: the Framework Laptop 13 AMD and the Fairphone 6, both of which were built to this standard before the directive existed. Across the broader market, compliance is inconsistent, and enforcement in the first months will clarify how national consumer protection agencies interpret the “reasonable price” standard for parts.
Why it matters: Enforcement begins in 18 days. For buyers purchasing repairable hardware, the guarantee extension is an immediate practical benefit. For buyers of non-compliant devices, the first enforcement actions in August and September will determine how quickly the broader market moves. The asset case for right to repair covers the capital argument.
Source: European Commission: Right to Repair Directive
- China’s rare earth export licensing process runs 45 days through the State Council – the operational mechanism behind the controls matters as much as the list of restricted elements.
The export licensing regime covering rare earths requires applicants to submit through China’s Ministry of Commerce, with a statutory 45-day review period running through the State Council. The process applies to the seven elements restricted from April 2025 (samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, yttrium) and the five additional elements scheduled to come under controls in November 2026 (holmium, erbium, thulium, europium, ytterbium). Licences can be approved, conditioned, or denied. End-use verification is required. For manufacturers outside China, a 45-day queue for each reorder of controlled materials is a structural addition to lead times, not a one-time administrative hurdle.
Why it matters: The lead-time impact of the licensing process is the operational constraint that sits below the strategic headline. A component manufacturer running a three-week reorder cycle on rare earth inputs now faces a 45-day minimum queue. That forces either larger safety stock (capital tied up) or redesign toward non-restricted inputs (time and engineering cost). Neither is free. The copper piece covers the parallel supply concentration story for the most widely used industrial metal.
Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026
- NREL data: residential lithium-ion battery systems cost USD 700 to USD 1,300 per kilowatt-hour installed in 2026 – utility-scale four-hour systems have fallen to USD 334 per kilowatt-hour.
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s 2025 cost projections report installed residential lithium-ion battery system costs of USD 700 to USD 1,300 per kilowatt-hour in 2026, with incentive-adjusted effective costs falling below USD 800 per kilowatt-hour across temperate markets. Utility-scale four-hour systems benchmark at USD 334 per kilowatt-hour installed, a 90% reduction from USD 1,200 per kilowatt-hour in 2010. The NREL residential figure covers the full installed cost: hardware, inverter, installation labour, and soft costs. It is a different metric from the BloombergNEF grid-scale turnkey figure of USD 117 per megawatt-hour reported in last week’s digest.
Why it matters: The two figures measure different things at different scales. Grid-scale BESS at USD 117/MWh is the cost at which utilities build storage. Residential installed at USD 700 to USD 1,300 per kilowatt-hour is the cost at which a household can buy genuine energy independence. At the lower end of that range, a 10kWh home battery system runs approximately USD 7,000 to USD 13,000 installed before incentives. That is a capital purchase, not a recurring expense, and it pays off differently from a subscription. The energy sovereignty explainer covers the underlying argument.
Source: NREL: Cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage (2025 Update)