Five items this week. The first new commercial copper operation in the United States in 18 years. A solar efficiency record that bridges laboratory performance and industrial scale. A revised central bank gold forecast for 2026 with a lower figure than recent years and a higher gold price. The GSMA’s annual connectivity assessment showing satellite broadband making a measurable dent in the unconnected population. And lithium carbonate prices recovering from their 2024 floor as Chilean supply politics slow new capacity.
- Taseko’s Florence Copper project produces first commercial copper cathode in February 2026 – the first US greenfield copper operation since 2008.
Taseko Mines harvested its first copper cathodes from the Florence Copper facility in Arizona in February 2026, using in-situ copper recovery (ISCR) extraction rather than conventional open-pit or underground mining. Q1 2026 output reached 1.5 million pounds of cathode copper. Florence is the first greenfield copper project in the United States since 2008, and the first commercial-scale deployment of ISCR globally. The method injects a weak acid solution underground, dissolves copper in place, and pumps the copper-rich solution to the surface for electrowinning, leaving no open pit and generating minimal surface disturbance.
Why it matters: New US domestic copper production provides a partial hedge against the import tariff schedule confirmed in July – refined copper imports face a 15% duty from January 2027. Florence will not move the global supply picture materially (1.5 million pounds per quarter versus a global market measured in billions), but it is the first data point in a decade showing that new US copper capacity is technically and commercially viable. The broader supply deficit argument is in the copper piece.
Source: Taseko Mines: Florence Copper Q1 2026 Production Update
- Trina Solar achieves 32.6% efficiency in perovskite-silicon tandem solar cells – bridging laboratory records with near-commercial module scale.
Trina Solar announced a certified 32.6% power conversion efficiency for perovskite-silicon tandem cells at industrial scale in December 2025, registered in the Solar Cell Efficiency Tables maintained by UNSW and published in Progress in Photovoltaics. The result exceeded the previous module-scale record of 30.6%. Standard monocrystalline silicon cells plateau around 26 to 27% under ideal conditions; the tandem architecture captures a wider part of the solar spectrum by stacking a perovskite layer above a silicon base. Industrial-scale manufacturing of perovskite cells has lagged laboratory results by several years due to stability and deposition challenges; Trina’s record is at a size that approaches commercial production runs.
Why it matters: Higher panel efficiency means fewer square metres of roof or ground per kilowatt-hour of output. For off-grid and space-constrained installations – cabin roofs, vehicle-mounted systems, small land areas – efficiency improvements directly expand what is achievable without adding cost. The home battery buying guide covers what to pair with solar; the efficiency trajectory is the variable that determines how much panel capacity you need.
Source: Trina Solar: Efficiency and Module Power Output Records
- World Gold Council revises 2026 central bank gold demand forecast to 755 tonnes – below recent annual averages but above the pre-2022 baseline, with spot gold near USD 4,600 per ounce.
The World Gold Council revised its 2026 forecast for central bank gold purchases to 755 tonnes, compared with actual annual purchases of approximately 1,000 to 1,136 tonnes in each of the preceding four years. The lower forecast reflects partial normalisation of emergency-driven buying that followed the freezing of Russian foreign exchange reserves in 2022, which triggered a broad reassessment of reserve asset allocation among non-aligned central banks. Despite the lower volume, the pace remains well above the 400 to 500 tonnes annual average from the decade before 2022. Gold spot prices traded near USD 4,600 per troy ounce in mid-2026, roughly doubling in euro terms since 2020.
Why it matters: The revision to 755 tonnes is not a reversal – it is a return to a still-elevated run rate after an exceptional multi-year spike. The structural argument covered in the Alden, Doomberg, and Gromen framework is about the direction of reserve diversification, not the peak quarterly volume. The price movement in gold since 2020 reflects the same shift in institutional preference that individual buyers can replicate in smaller scale.
Source: World Gold Council: Gold Demand Trends Q1 2026
- GSMA Mobile Economy Report 2026: satellite broadband reduces the unconnected population below 2.5 billion for the first time – from 3.4 billion in 2020.
The GSMA’s annual Mobile Economy Report tracks the population with no access to mobile internet. The 2026 edition shows the figure below 2.5 billion for the first time, down from 3.4 billion in 2020. Satellite broadband – principally Starlink and, from April 2026, Project Kuiper – accounts for a significant portion of new coverage in areas beyond terrestrial infrastructure economics. The GSMA notes that the remaining unconnected population is concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and remote areas of South America, where satellite is likely to be the primary connectivity path for the next decade rather than mobile infrastructure buildout.
Why it matters: The reduction in the unconnected population confirms the trajectory: satellite is not a niche product for early adopters but the primary mechanism closing the last gap in global coverage. For buyers evaluating off-grid communications options, the commercial and competitive dynamics of a market serving 2.5 billion unconnected people are different from the dynamics of a specialist service. The Starlink guide covers the hardware options; the GSMA data is the demand backdrop that shapes how aggressively providers compete on price.
Source: GSMA: Mobile Economy Report 2026
- Lithium carbonate spot prices recovering from their 2024 floor – Chilean production politics and a widening supply-demand gap expected to push prices higher through 2027.
Lithium carbonate prices fell from a peak of approximately USD 85,000 per tonne in late 2022 to under USD 10,000 per tonne by mid-2024, a 90% decline driven by DRC and Australian supply expansion and a slower-than-forecast EV adoption curve in Western markets. Prices have since recovered to approximately USD 15,000 to USD 18,000 per tonne in mid-2026. Chilean lithium production, which provides roughly 25% of global supply through SQM and Codelco’s joint venture, has been delayed by the nationalisation transition: new capacity commitments under the government partnership structure have lagged original timelines. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence projects the supply-demand balance returning to deficit by 2027 as EV volumes accelerate past the pace of new mine approvals.
Why it matters: Lithium is the battery input that copper is to electrical infrastructure: abundant in geology, concentrated in processing and refining, and exposed to political decisions in a small number of countries. The 2022-to-2024 price collapse demonstrated that commodity cycles work – but the floor was not zero and the recovery is already underway. For buyers of home battery systems, the cost curves covered in the home battery guide reflect today’s lithium prices; the 2027 supply deficit projection suggests current prices are the reference point, not a new lower baseline.
Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence: Lithium Price Assessment