Five items this week. The Democratic Republic of Congo supplies 73 per cent of global cobalt mine production, concentrating the highest single-country battery mineral risk in a country with an active artisanal mining sector and no quick substitute for shortfall. Clean energy investment globally reached USD 2.1 trillion in 2025, exceeding fossil fuel investment by more than two to one and embedding structural demand for the minerals behind the transition. John Deere’s USD 99 million right-to-repair settlement is a legal precedent, not a resolution, with two active government proceedings still in play. US food-at-home prices are rising above historical averages as physical input costs compound. And China controls 70 to 80 per cent of battery-grade manganese refining, the most geographically concentrated critical mineral in the battery supply chain by refining share.
- The Democratic Republic of Congo supplied approximately 73 per cent of global cobalt mine production in 2024, according to USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, making it the most geographically concentrated battery mineral by country of mine origin.
Global cobalt mine production reached approximately 230,000 tonnes in 2024, with the DRC producing around 170,000 tonnes. Downstream refining is dominated by China, which processes approximately 65 per cent of global cobalt. Cobalt is used in the cathode of nickel-manganese-cobalt and nickel-cobalt-aluminium battery chemistries that power electric vehicles and consumer electronics. Alternatives such as lithium iron phosphate are gaining share in some applications, but cannot substitute for cobalt in high-energy-density formats or in legacy production volumes. The USGS notes the US imports essentially all its cobalt and considers it critical to national security.
Why it matters: A disruption to DRC mine output has no near-term substitute supply available at scale. China’s refining dominance means that even non-Chinese cobalt supply typically passes through Chinese processing before reaching cathode manufacturers. Any household or business buying into battery storage technology today is buying into a supply chain with a single-country mine concentration and a single-country refining concentration at the two most critical nodes.
Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cobalt – US Geological Survey
- Clean energy investment reached USD 2.1 trillion globally in 2025 for the first time, exceeding fossil fuel investment by more than two to one, according to the IEA’s World Energy Investment 2026 report.
Solar photovoltaic accounted for the largest single category at over USD 450 billion, followed by grid infrastructure and electric vehicles. Fossil fuel investment held near USD 1 trillion. The ratio has widened in each of the past four years: clean energy attracted USD 1.7 trillion in 2023. The manufacturing and installation scale behind these numbers is creating sustained demand pull on copper, lithium, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements that is embedded in actual capital allocation rather than in forecasts.
Why it matters: A two-to-one clean-energy investment ratio sustained across multiple years means the material inputs to clean energy infrastructure face demand pressure that is structural, not cyclical. The supply constraints visible in copper treatment charges, nickel quotas, and lithium export bans are the physical expression of this investment scale meeting a mine supply pipeline built for a slower buildout.
Source: IEA World Energy Investment 2026 – IEA
- John Deere agreed in April 2026 to pay USD 99 million to settle a class-action lawsuit filed by farmers and independent repair shops who accused the company of monopolising repair services by withholding diagnostic software.
A federal court granted preliminary approval to the settlement in May 2026, giving equipment owners access to repair tools they have been locked out of since Deere moved to software-controlled diagnostic systems. A separate Federal Trade Commission suit filed in January 2025 continues regardless of the private settlement, and Deere simultaneously faces a new Illinois lawsuit from a commercial contractor over identical restrictions applied to its construction and forestry equipment lines.
Why it matters: This case is not about warranty terms. It is about whether the owner of productive capital controls it, or whether the manufacturer retains de facto control through software locks. The USD 99 million settlement is a precedent, not a resolution; two active proceedings ensure the principle remains contested in court. For the broader argument about repairability and ownership, see Why Right to Repair Is Not About the Environment.
Source: Farmers Advance: Deere right-to-repair settlement gets preliminary approval – Farmers Advance
- US food-at-home prices are projected to rise 3.2 per cent in 2026, above the 20-year historical average of 2.6 per cent, with some forecasters projecting increases as high as 4.5 per cent if tariff and supply pressures compound.
The USDA Economic Research Service projection accounts for elevated fertiliser costs, persistent shipping disruptions, and higher agricultural labour costs. Unlike most manufactured goods, food production cannot be made meaningfully cheaper by software; the inputs are physical, biological, and energy-intensive. The divergence is sharper in import-dependent economies: Iran is forecast at around 56 per cent food inflation year-on-year, Argentina at 33 per cent, and Turkey at 25 per cent.
Why it matters: Food prices establish the floor of what it costs to exist, independent of the deflationary force reshaping services and information goods. As that floor rises while AI-driven deflation accelerates elsewhere, any reduction in household food-cost exposure, through long-shelf-life storage, seed stock, or direct production capacity, compounds in value.
Source: USDA Economic Research Service: Food Price Outlook – USDA Economic Research Service
- China controls the refining of roughly 70 to 80 per cent of battery-grade manganese, a material whose cathode demand is forecast to grow more than 600 per cent by 2040.
Manganese is a core component of both nickel-manganese-cobalt and emerging sodium-ion battery chemistries, the two formulations scaling fastest for stationary storage applications. If China’s refining capacity were excluded, non-Chinese sources could cover well under half of global demand. Demand in battery applications alone is projected to nearly triple by 2030, with the broader demand increase extending further over the following decade.
Why it matters: Every home battery, EV pack, and grid storage installation in Europe over the next decade will be priced partly at China’s discretion. This is not a tariff risk with a policy remedy; it is a structural dependency embedded in the chemistry of the energy transition. No substitution pathway exists at the scale and speed that current purchasing decisions require.
Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Manganese – US Geological Survey; Overseas Development Institute: Critical Minerals Geopolitics 2026 – Overseas Development Institute