Five items this week. China controls approximately 95 per cent of global production of high-purity manganese sulphate monohydrate, the refined cathode precursor used in NMC and LMFP battery chemistries, with no non-Chinese processing capacity of commercial scale projected before 2030. The US Budget Reconciliation Act of 2025, enacted in early 2026, eliminated both the consumer EV tax credit and the battery manufacturing production credit, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting a reduction of 1.2 million US EV sales through 2031. The EU’s GOVSATCOM programme reached initial operational capability, providing the first integrated sovereign satellite communications service to EU member state governments and emergency services. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035 projects that global food production must grow 15 per cent against a yield growth rate of 1.2 per cent per year, with water availability identified as the primary binding constraint. And China produces approximately 82 per cent of global bismuth, a concentration that is being amplified by regulatory-driven demand growth as lead-free substitution requirements expand.
- China accounts for approximately 95 per cent of global production of high-purity manganese sulphate monohydrate (HPMSM), the refined manganese compound used as a cathode precursor in NMC and LMFP lithium-ion battery chemistries, according to the IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025, with no non-Chinese processing capacity at commercial scale projected before 2030 even under the IEA’s accelerated supply diversification scenario.
Global HPMSM production reached approximately 750,000 tonnes in 2025. While manganese ore is geographically distributed across South Africa, Gabon, Australia, and other producers, virtually all refining to battery-grade HPMSM takes place in China. South Africa and Australia have announced processing investment plans, but the combination of capital requirements, regulatory timelines, and the technical complexity of the refining process means the IEA does not project material non-Chinese capacity within the planning horizon of current battery manufacturing investment.
Why it matters: HPMSM concentration at 95 per cent in a single country is the upstream processing equivalent of graphite anode supply: the ore is distributed, but the value-adding step is almost entirely in one place. For battery manufacturers building production capacity outside China, HPMSM is a supply chain dependency that cannot be sourced around on a short timeline. Every NMC and LMFP cell produced outside China depends on a Chinese-processed input, and that dependency will persist through most of this decade regardless of policy.
Source: IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 – IEA
- The US Budget Reconciliation Act of 2025 (H.R.1), signed into law in 2026, terminated the Section 30D clean vehicle tax credit of up to USD 7,500 per qualifying electric vehicle purchase and eliminated the Section 45X advanced manufacturing production credit as applied to battery components, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating the combined elimination would reduce US EV sales by approximately 1.2 million units cumulative through 2031.
The Section 30D credit had been a significant factor in US EV sales growth following its expansion under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Battery manufacturing investments announced in Michigan, Georgia, Ohio, and Tennessee under the 45X production credit incentive are being reviewed by several developers following removal of that credit. Several announced facilities have been indefinitely deferred or cancelled. The CBO estimates the credits’ removal reduces federal outlays but compresses the domestic battery manufacturing build-out relative to IRA-era projections.
Why it matters: Tax credit reversals do not change the physical supply-demand fundamentals for critical minerals, but they change the pace and geography of battery supply chain development in the United States. A slower US EV ramp temporarily reduces near-term lithium, graphite, and cobalt demand from that market. The more durable observation is that policy-driven demand can reverse faster than supply infrastructure adjusts, creating the mismatch conditions that have already produced one lithium surplus and one subsequent deficit within two years.
Source: US Congress, H.R.1 (119th Congress) – US Congress
- The EU Governmental Satellite Communication service (GOVSATCOM) reached initial operational capability in 2026, providing secure satellite communications to EU member state governments, military forces, and emergency services through pooled capacity from member state assets and commercial providers, according to the European Union Agency for the Space Programme (EUSPA).
The longer-term IRIS2 constellation, contracted to a consortium including SES and Eutelsat under the European Secure Connectivity programme, is scheduled to begin commercial and governmental service delivery from 2027 with a constellation designed to provide broadband connectivity across EU territory and neighbouring regions. GOVSATCOM represents the EU’s first integrated sovereign space communications capability independent of non-European satellite infrastructure, designed in part to ensure continuity of government communications when terrestrial networks are disrupted.
Why it matters: Sovereign communications infrastructure at the institutional level is the structural equivalent of the household communications sovereignty argument. When terrestrial networks fail in emergencies, command and coordination depend on communications paths that do not share single points of failure with the disrupted ground infrastructure. IRIS2’s development was accelerated in part by the recognition that commercial satellite services can become geopolitically contested. The same logic applies at the household scale: a communications capability that does not depend on a single provider or territory is more resilient when the systems it supplements fail.
Source: EUSPA: GOVSATCOM – European Union Agency for the Space Programme; European Commission: EU Space Programme IRIS2 – European Commission
- The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035, published in July 2026, projects that global agricultural production will need to grow by approximately 15 per cent over the decade to meet expected demand, while cereal yields are projected to grow at approximately 1.2 per cent per year, below the 2 per cent rate of the preceding three decades, with water availability identified as the primary production constraint ahead of land, energy, and fertilizers.
Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are identified as the regions where demand growth most significantly outpaces projected production growth. The report projects that the required production increase demands sustained investment in agricultural technology, water management infrastructure, and soil health management across tropical and subtropical regions. Meat consumption in high-income economies is projected to decline modestly as plant-based alternatives gain share, partially offsetting demand growth elsewhere.
Why it matters: A 15 per cent production requirement against a 1.2 per cent annual yield growth rate defines a structural gap in global food supply that the Outlook projects on the basis of current agricultural science and committed policy, not catastrophic assumptions. For households building food production capacity, the decade-long supply tightness this gap implies is the same physical system pressure that drives the site’s food sovereignty content. The OECD and FAO are projecting it from first principles; the household response is to reduce exposure to the most fragile links in the chain.
Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035 – OECD and FAO
- China produced approximately 82 per cent of global bismuth output in 2024, according to USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, from a global production base of approximately 18,000 tonnes, with demand growing as the EU RoHS Directive and equivalent regulations in multiple jurisdictions continue to drive substitution of lead with bismuth in solders, fusible alloys, and free-machining steels.
Bismuth is used in pharmaceuticals including bismuth subsalicylate for digestive medicines, low-melting-point alloys for fire suppression systems and safety devices, and increasingly in lead-free solders and shotgun ammunition. It is produced primarily as a by-product of lead smelting. The USGS identifies bismuth as a critical mineral, noting that regulatory-driven demand growth from lead substitution is accelerating while supply growth is constrained by lead production volumes.
Why it matters: Bismuth’s combination of high Chinese production concentration and growing regulatory-mandated demand from lead-free applications creates a supply tightening dynamic that policy is actively accelerating. As lead-free regulations extend to additional product categories, bismuth demand grows while supply remains subordinate to lead smelting decisions made for a different market. The pharmaceutical dimension adds a healthcare supply chain dependency to the industrial story: digestive medicines used by hundreds of millions of people depend on a critical mineral from a single dominant source.
Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Bismuth – US Geological Survey
The GOVSATCOM item connects to Which Starlink Kit to Own Before You Need It for the household-scale equivalent. The food and water constraint items connect to Water Filtration: Big Berkey vs AquaTru Classic vs SOURCE Hydropanel and Heirloom Seeds: The Case for Genetic Diversity.